Lot of people have done analysis of job market in USA and its economic impact on the jobs in those countries but Ireland is Europes IT hub and growing economy so we need discuss COVID-19 impact on Irish job market. This analysis will provide some insights about how much jobs in Ireland will be sustainable and continued to due economic impact.
We will also look into factors which are impacting current irish job market with Current and Post COVID-19 situation.This analysis will be really helpful to people who are currently working or studying in Ireland and who are planning to come to Ireland.It will help them to asses the COVID-19 impact on Irish job market.
Below are COVID-19 impact on Irish job market
- Decrease in consumption from customers
Lockdown in Ireland due to COVID -19 have decreased the consumer demand hence most of the industries like automobile,Hospitality,Aviation ,construction,manufacturing, restaurants and pubs are more impacted. Those kind of services are not essential in current lockdown situation hence they are badly in low demand.The only option required for those industries is to do cost cutting because they were not prepared from such plummet in consumer demand.
- Government spending has been decreased
According to Irish government there has been loss of 140k jobs and may be more 400k job will be lost in future if the lockdown restrictions are extended for significant time. Upto 300k people have got COVID-19 impact benefits and due to this benefits government has to take out money from their pocket and this will lead to decreased spending of government on public infrastructure and funding some of the different areas in Ireland. This will impact IT companies as well as companies who are depending on government and private collaboration principles.
- Trade imbalance and Disruption in Supply chain
Due to slow down in world because of this pandemic lot of business which are dependent on supply chain will get impacted even after this pandemic is over may be till 1 year after the pandemic is over.The loss in economy will have direct impact on job loss.
- What is the size of this impact
Nobody knows the impact of this pandemic yet because it did not reach its peak and I pray that it should not go to peak as the vaccine programs are in trial but still there is significant time to get vaccine out so till then we need to follow social distancing and other WHO guidance to prevent it. Size of impact can’t be compared with last 2008 economic crash as well because the issue in 2008 was different than current crisis. But for sure the impact will be more this time if this goes on for couple of months and shocks will be felt till 1.5 years or more than that.
- Which sectors will have more jobs losses
As I mentioned above non essential businesses and services like industries like automobile,Hospitality,Aviation ,construction,manufacturing, restaurants and pubs are more impacted so job loss in those are more.Due to less business stimulation banks will have more NPA accounts because bank will not get good amount of money back from those businesses leading to limited lending capacity.
- Which sectors will have less job losses
Pharma companies who are working on vaccines and drug , Biotechnology companies who are working this COVID crisis, Life sciences and Research firms, Amazon like big ecommerse players and telecommunication and broadcasting industries will have less impact due to COVID 19 in Ireland.
- COVID 19 Impact on Irish I.T. market
This is very important to discuss here because most of Non EU people are working in IT industry in Ireland and they should know how this COVID 19 will impact Irish Job Market. IT industry can be divided into two sectors like Product and Services oriented business. Product based IT companies have specialized skilled employees, headcount will be limited and they are run by funds on their balance sheet by some investors. On the other hand service based companies will have clients in hospitality, banks, aviation and some IT companies , they will have more employees with more general skills and sometimes due to more headcounts they have to take decisions of cost cutting by doing redundancy of employees. Hence those people are sometimes at risk. But that time is not yet here because most of IT industry companies have learned from previous 2008 economic crash and they are well prepared this time. But if they are not prepared cost cutting is only option for them. Most of the IT projects are going on hold or cancelled because of funding issues as investors are pulling out money due to market uncertainty and due to this hiring processes are also on hold. Some of the employers are doing Salary cuts, furloughs and lay offs . If the employees have more specialized skills they will not be affected but people with general skills will get impacted.
Macroeconomics on Irish Business in next few months: Comapnies who have less money on balance sheet they will suffered and we will get news of Mergers , acquisitions and buyouts.Anticipatory hiring will not happen for few months and more account and billing related projects will be taken so that revenue will be maintained in IT companies. More researchers and scientists will be hired by medical related companies and they will be market leaders in economy. If they find the cure the economic downturn can be shifted to positive side and all the investors will again put money in market confidently.
Job seekers who would be hardest hit
- New Grad students :
Graduate students will be more vulnerable because if they dont have Irish Experience they will suffer more. People who have specialized skills like Architects and solution consultants will be ok in this job market but skills which are more saturated will get affected. My advice will be to do more learning in this downtime get some certifications of Cloud or Big Data tech and be more competitive to get job.
Employers will have to maintaing 50% Irish and EU workforce and 50% Non EU workforce so to balance that they will hire more EU people and this will create more competition for stamp 1g holders.My advice will will be same to do more learning in this downtime, get some certifications of Cloud or Big Data tech and be more competitive to get job.
- Skilled contractors –
They are main targets during such events because they are paid more than average so they will be more impacted. But as they have specialized skills they can be retained due to their skill sets as well.
- Employees with general skills , with poor productivity will be at more risk so we need to be on toes and maintain the performance.
We are not creating any negativity in anyone’s mind but we are just trying to put some scenarios which might arise in coming 1 or 2 year so nobody can say these things for sure will happen.We are not Economic and financial exerts but we are trying to help people who have doubts and queries about COVID 19 impact on Irish Job market. Above scenarios are just outlined according to last economic crisis and they differ on individual basis but its always good to know somethings in advance and be prepared.
The best we can do to get out of this COVID 19 situation asap is Stay Home and Stay Safe.
Please contact Raghav Dixit on linkedin for more queries.